This paper models the price and income elasticity of retail finance in Australia using aggregate quarterly data and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. We particularly focus on the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) from 2007 onwards on retail finance demand and analyse four submarkets (period analysed in brackets): owneroccupied housing loans (Sep 1985–June 2010), term ...

The 2008 crisis highlighted the importance of using stress tests in banking practice. The role of these stress tests is to identify and precisely estimate the effect of possible future changes in economic conditions on the capital adequacy and profitability of banks. This paper seeks to show a possible methodology to calculate the stressed point-in-time PD parameter. The presented approach cont...

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between carbon emissions, income, energy and total employment in selected OPEC countries for the period of 1971–2002. We mainly focus on the link between energy use and income. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, we find that there is a cointegrating relationship between the variables in Saudi Arabia only. The long run for...

We show that the use of prior information derived from former empirical findings and/or subject matter theory regarding the lag structure of the observable variables together with an AR process for the error terms can produce univariate and single equation models that are intuitively appealing, simple to implement and work well in practice. JEL Classification

From 1962 to 2013, the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) agricultural employment share declined from 82% to 31%. The transfer of workers out of low-productivity agriculture is a fundamental pillar of the PRC’s aspirations to progress and eventually become a high-income economy. We hypothesize that the drivers of this decline have been the increase in income per capita, industrial value added...

The present article uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to identify the long run equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. TodaYamamoto andWald-test causality tests have identified the direction of the causal relationship between these two variables in the case of Pakistan in the period between 1971 and 2008. Ng-Perron and ...

Framing is a sophisticated form of discourse in which the speaker tries to induce a cognitive bias through consistent linkage between a topic and a specific context (frame). We build on political science and communication theory and use probabilistic topic models combined with time series regression analysis (autoregressive distributed-lag models) to gain insights about the language dynamics in...

The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, an...

This paper contributes to the literature by empirically examining whether the influence of public debt on economic growth differs between the short and the long run and presents different patterns across euro-area countries. To this end, we use annual data from both central and peripheral countries of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the 1960-2012 period and estimate a growth ...

We investigated the asymmetric effects of energy consumption, car ownership and tourism activities on CO2 emissions in UK. Empirical results from Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (...