eiarnination the oil market and review the major oil importer countries, is a major need for guidance and marketing strategy for crude oil exporting countries. so that estimating the oil demand for importer countries and analysis the effective factors on their oil demand, can be an important factor in planning and policy making for oil exporting countries in order to sell oil. so iran is not an...

This paper contains short term monthly forecasts of crude oil prices using compumetric methods. Compumetric forecasting methods are ones that use computers to identify the underlying model that produces the forecast. Typically, forecasting models are designed or specified by humans rather than machines. Compumetric methods are applied to determine whether models they provide produce reliable fo...

This study seeks to explain why crude oil prices fluctuate, the main cause being the quota regime, which characterises the OPEC agreements. Given that the Saudi oil supply is inelastic in the short term, a shock in the oil market is accommodated by an immediate price change. In contrast, a dominant firm behaviour in the long term causes an output change, which is accompanied by a smaller price ...

Crude oil price fluctuations affect the business cycle due to affecting ups and downs of growth economy, which one indicators economic phenomenon. The importance prediction requires a model that can predict future prices quickly, easily, accurately so it be used as reference in determining policies. Machine learning is an accurate method predicting makes easier because there no need program com...

If you have regular occasion to fill your car’s tank with gas, you know that the price of gasoline has recently been both high and volatile a consequence, for the most part, of similar movements in the price of crude oil. The weekly average price for a barrel of West Texas intermediate, a standard grade of crude oil, hovered around $30 during the second half of 2003 but began to rise around the...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classifications: C51 N70 Keywords: Crude oil price volatility GARCH Covariates Modified dummy variables OPEC announcements WTI crude oil Several times a year, OPEC hosts conferences among its members to agree on further oil production policies. Prior to OPEC conferences, there is usually rampant speculation about which decision concerning world oil production levels (n...