This paper employs a bivaraite vector autoregressive-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (VAR-GARCH) model recently developed by Ling and McAleer (2003) to examine the impact of oil price fluctuations on stock market returns in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia over the period from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2011. The proposed model is estimated using maximum likelihood met...

This article studies the ability of an N-factor Gaussian model to explain the stochastic behavior of oil futures prices when estimated with the use of all available price information, as opposed to traditional approaches of aggregating data for a set of maturities. A Kalman filter estimation procedure that allows for a time-dependent number of daily observations is used to calibrate the model. ...

The popularity of realized measures and various linear models for volatility forecasting has been the focus of attention in the literature addressing energy markets’ price variability over the past decade. However, there are no studies to help practitioners achieve optimal forecasting accuracy by guiding them to a specific estimator and model. This paper contributes to this literature in two wa...

This paper attempts to reconcile an apparent contradiction between short-run and long-run movements in the price of gold. A theoretical model is developed that suggests a set of the conditions that would have to be satisfied for the price of gold to rise over time at the general rate of inflation and hence be an effective long-run hedge against inflation. The model also demonstrates that short-...

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the effects of price support programs and stocks on price dynamics and price volatility. Considering a price support program as a censoring mechanism, market prices are specified as a dynamic Tobit model with time varying volatility. The model is applied to the U.S. nonfat dry milk market to examine the impact of market liberalization on price dyna...

Despite widespread acceptance and application of real options theory in the economic literature, little empirical work has attempted to assess the extent to which firm behavior accords with the theory’s prescriptions. In particular, it is not well-known whether, or by how much, firms actually delay irreversible investments following an increase in the uncertainty of their economic environment. ...

Despite widespread acceptance and application of real options theory in the economic literature, little empirical work has attempted to assess the extent to which firm behavior accords with the theory’s prescriptions. In particular, it is not well-known whether, or by how much, firms actually delay irreversible investments following an increase in the uncertainty of their economic environment. ...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, and inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibrium...