与传统确定性预报相比,洪水概率预报能够为防洪调度决策提供更为丰富的信息。以大渡河猴子岩水库以上流域为研究区,建立新安江次洪模型,并采用动态系统响应曲线进行实时洪水预报校正。在确定性预报校正基础上,建立基于水文不确定性处理器(HUP)的次洪概率预报模型,定量分析预报不确定性,实现入库洪水概率预报。结果表明:①利用猴子岩流域2009-2019年水文气象资料,建立的新安江次洪模型整体精度较高,率定期和验证期的洪量和洪峰相对误差均在±20%以内,平均确定性系数分别为0.69和0.72;经动态系统响应曲线校正后,洪峰和洪量误差均有降低,率定期和验证期的确定性系数分别提高0.13和0.09。②以2020年3场洪水未来48 h预报降雨为输入,新安江模型预报精度不高,且随着预见期增长而降低,但经动态系统响应曲线校正后,整体预报精度有所提高,洪量相对误差减小幅度超50%,确定性系数提高幅度超60%。③...

since direct experimental evidence is not available, this must be verified through a modeling approach, providedadequate data be available. many statistical methods are used to study the relation between independent anddependent variables.this research was carried out at the western part of jazmurian basin tlocated in the southeast ofiran. in this paperused ten physical characteristics such as ...

As the water requirement for food production and other human needs grows, quantification of environmental flow requirements (EFRs) is necessary to assess the amount of water needed to sustain freshwater ecosystems. EFRs are the result of the quantification of water necessary to sustain the riverine ecosystem, which is calculated from the mean of an environmental flow (EF) method. In this study,...

Background: Increasing evidence indicates that synovial tissue analysis can deliver pathophysiological insights but also individual clinically-relevant information in adult-onset inflammatory arthritides. Little is known about pathology juvenile idiopathic arthritis, especially regarding inter-patient variability of histopathological features. Objectives: To assess the heterogeneity main featur...

Abstract N owadays, conservation, maintenance and monitoring of natural resources according to estimated benefits and costs, plays an important role in economic growth and sustainable development. Economic development along with environmental protection, while preserving economic competitiveness by providing eco-friendly technologies, will prevent of loss and waste of environmental r...