This paper analyzes the response of international oil producers to demand-induced changes in the real price of oil during 1975–2011. The goal is to disentangle fluctuations in OPEC and non-OPEC production and to derive consistent estimates of the short-run price elasticity of crude oil supply at the country level. I find that oil producers hardly respond to demand shocks within the same month, ...

Belief networks are a new, potentially im­ portant, class of knowledge-based models. ARC01, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting set­ ting. ARC01's underlying belief network models the variables believed to have an im­ pact on t...

The Hubbert model assumes that the worldwide production of crude oil will follow a bell-shaped curve. Oil prices are expected to increase, or even to spike up, at or after the production peak. However, the Hubbert model provides no description of price trends. We also lack historical data that can be used as a guide, since so far there have been no cases of a complete, worldwide depletion of a ...

It goes without saying that crude oil is important for both developed and emerging economies, with crude oil-related expenditures representing a significant proportion of total economic inputs, and an even more substantial share of total energy consumption. For example, energy expenditures of about $1,233 billion in the US currently account for some 8.8% of its GDP (from a high of 13.7% in 1981...

Oil price forecasting has received a great deal of attention from practitioners and researchers alike, but it remains difficult topic because its dependency on variety factors, including the economic cycle, international relations, geopolitics. Forecasting oil is gratifying task. Motivated by this issue, we present robust model for accurate crude using ARIMA Prophet models based machine learnin...