Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present ar...

Identifying which nonindigenous species will become invasive and forecasting the damage they will cause is difficult and presents a significant problem for natural resource management. Often, the data or resources necessary for ecological risk assessment are incomplete or absent, leaving environmental decision makers ill equipped to effectively manage valuable natural resources. Structured expe...

In this paper, I argue that, contrary to common opinion, a counterexample against a philosophical theory does not amount to conclusive evidence against that theory. Instead, the method of counterexamples allows for the derivation of a disjunction, i.e., ‘either the theory is false or an auxiliary assumption is false’, not a negation of the target theory. This is so because, whenever the method ...

This paper reports a new approach to coaching collaboration in a synchronous distance learning context. Prior work on supporting collaboration has relied largely on comparing student discourse to models of collaborative discourse. Comparison of student work to expert solutions is prevalent in individual coaching paradigms. Although these approaches are valuable, our approach evaluates the poten...

The authors argue that commonly used ranking and rating methods of value surveys may have low validity in cross-cultural value comparisons because participants' reports about values can be affected by factors such as cultural differences in the meaning of particular value terms as well as the possibility that some value judgments are based on social comparison or deprivation rather than on any ...