Averages of proper scoring rules are often used to rank probabilistic forecasts. In many cases, the individual terms in these averages based on observations and forecasts from different distributions. We show that some most popular rules, such as continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), give more importance with large uncertainty, which can lead unintuitive rankings. To describe this issue, ...

Abstract We study how and to what extent the existence of non-local diffusion affects transport chemical species in a composite medium. For our purposes, we prescribe mass flux obey two-scale, constitutive law featuring derivatives fractional order, employ asymptotic homogenisation technique obtain an overall description species’ evolution. As result, effects at micro-scale are ciphered effecti...