developing countries, including iran, have a high degree of volatility of macroeconomic variables. fluctuations inex change rate, bank interest rate and inflation rate can create insecure environment for in vestorsin iran. hence, this study examined the impact of macroeconomic variables on the tobin’s q index for the sugar companies of tehran stock exchange (tse) during the period between1380-1...

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants is presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is t...

The empirical success of RBC models is often judged by their ability to explain the behavior of a multitude of real macroeconomic variables using a single exogenous shock process. This paper shows that in a model with the same basic structure as the bare bones RBC model, monetary, cost push or preference shocks are equally successful at explaining the behavior of macroeconomic variables. Thus, ...

We estimate a model of common and commodity-specific, highand low-frequency factors, built on the spline-GARCH model of Engle and Rangel (2008) to explain the period of exceptionally high price volatility in commodity markets during 2006-2008. We find that decomposing realized volatility into highand low-frequency components reveals the impact of slowly-evolving macroeconomic variables on the p...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: C33 G10 O49 Q43 Keywords: Oil prices Stock market depth Economic growth Other macroeconomic variables Panel VAR Granger causality G-20 countries This paper examines the linkages between economic growth, oil prices, depth in the stock market, and three other key macroeconomic indicators: real effective exchange rate, inflation rate, and real rate of inte...

The present paper is aimed at studying the nature of the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in India, if any such relationship exists. For this purpose the techniques of unit– root tests, cointegration and the Granger causality test have been applied between the NSE Index ‘Nifty’ and the macroeconomic variables, viz., Real effective economic rate (REER), Foreig...

In this paper we evaluate the relative performance of linear, non-linear and time-varying models for about 500 macroeconomic variables for the countries in the Euro area, using a real-time forecasting methodology. It turns out that linear models work well for about 35% of the series under analysis, time-varying models for another 35% and non-linear models for the remaining 30% of the series. Th...

This paper analyzes the impacts of news shocks on macroeconomic volatility. Whereas anticipation amplifies volatility in any purely forward-looking model, such as the baseline New Keynesian model, the results are ambiguous when including a backward-looking component. In addition to these theoretical findings, we use the estimated model of Smets and Wouters (2003) to provide numerical evidence t...