Construction project cost overrun is a common problem in the construction industry. The of projects thought to have increased by approximately 33% on average. Several types research been conducted and these generally rely historical data. However, whilst each has its own characteristics trend, real-time data are more reliable forecast trend. This paper proposes hidden Markov chain (HMM) model p...

risks mean cases of uncertainty of project, the impact of which is realized as a threat (negative aspect) and/or opportunity (positive aspect). the traditional viewpoint on risk is a negative viewpoint that implies damages, loss and harmful consequences. judgments such as this on risk merely emphasize on risks management and pay less attention to opportunities management. it is clear that some ...

background: research project risks are uncertain contingent events or situations that, if transpire, will have positive or negative effects on objectives of a project. the management of health and safety at work (mhsw) regulations 1999 require all employers and the self-employed persons to assess the risks from their work on anyone who may be affected by their activities. risk assessment is the...

in this study, in order to consider the effects of cash flow fluctuations on project profitability, the new risk kind indicators are proposed to assess projects risk. firstly, project cash flow calculates on the basis of cost and revenue data in an lng project. then distribution curves of two variables, oil price and interest rate of foreign loans, are utilized to determine distribution curve o...

in the process of investment decision making, next to financial indicators many other aspects of investment projects are increasingly often considered. this leads to the multi-criteria evaluation of a project. the advantage of multi-criteria methods is the ability to take into account all (not only financial) aspects of the attractiveness of an investment project. the selection of criteria of p...

the goal of this paper is to show how the concept of fuzzy logic can be used to establish a degree to which an investment project belongs to a class of risk. also, the probability of the fuzzy event is presented and is ap-plied to calculate the probability of the fuzzy event “the project x is a good investment”. this process has to enable the decision maker to compare several alternative invest...

For the three years leading up to the end of 1995, a multi-disciplinary project team evaluated the business opportunity of injecting carbon dioxide into a portion of the Weyburn Unit to improve recovery. As with any project of this magnitude, a comprehensive analysis of the opportunities and risks in the project had to be clearly defined and evaluated. A risk assessment using a Monte Carlo simu...