drought is random and nonlinear phenomenon and using linear stochastic models, nonlinear artificial neural network and hybrid models is advantaged for drought forecasting. this paper presents the performances of autoregressive integrated moving average (arima), direct multi-step neural network (dmsnn), recursive multi-step neural network (rmsnn), hybrid stochastic neural network of directive ap...

Kriging surrogate model provides explicit functions to represent the relationships between the inputs and outputs of a linear or nonlinear system, which is a desirable advantage for response estimation and parameter identification in structural design and model updating problem. However, little research has been carried out in applying Kriging model to crack identification. In this work, a sche...

in this paper a single server queuing production system is considered which is subject to gradual deterioration. the system is discussed under two different deteriorating conditions. a planning horizon is considered and server which is a d/m/1 queuing system is gradually deteriorates through time periods. a maintenance policy is taken into account whereby the server is restored to its initial c...

This paper proposes an improved particle swarm optimization named PSO with Controllable Random Exploration Velocity (PSO-CREV) behaving an additional exploration behavior. Different from other improvements on PSO, the updating principle of PSO-CREV is constructed in terms of stochastic approximation diagram. Hence a stochastic velocity independent on cognitive and social components of PSO can b...

this paper presents a new formulation for warehouse inventory management in a stochastic situation. the primary source of this formulation is derived from fp model, which has been proposed by fletcher and ponnambalam for reservoir management. the new proposed mathematical model is based on the first and the second moments of storage as a stochastic variable. using this model, the expected value...

This paper investigates the integration of strategic and tactical decisions in the supply chain network design (SCND) considering assembly line balancing (ALB) under demand uncertainty. Due to the decentralized decisions, a novel bi-level stochastic programming (BLSP) model has been developed in which SCND problem has been considered in the upper-level model, while the lower-level model contain...

This paper provides a theory for quantifying the hysteresis and constitutive nonlinearities inherent to piezoceramic compounds through a combination of free energy analysis and stochastic homogenization techniques. In the first step of the model development, Helmholtz and Gibbs free energy relations are constructed at the lattice or domain level to quantify the relation between the field and po...

This paper proposes a novel data-based approach for estimating the parameters of a stochastic hybrid model describing the traffic flow in an urban traffic network with signalized intersections. The model represents the evolution of the traffic flow rate, measuring the number of vehicles passing a given location per time unit. This traffic flow rate is described in this paper using a mode-depend...

In contrast to the classical view of development as a preprogrammed and deterministic process, recent studies have demonstrated that stochastic perturbations of highly non-linear systems may underlie the emergence and stability of biological patterns. Herein, we address the question of whether noise contributes to the generation of the stereotypical temporal pattern in gene expression during fl...