IHPBI is an early indicator in consumer price analysis. When the increases, it results inflation. inflation occurs, Indonesia's economic stability begins to be disturbed, so order suppress inflation, government raises interest rates and when circulation of money decrease, prices goods services will return normal. This research see next 3 years through ARFIMA method multi-input intervention with...

A distinguishing feature of the intra-day time-varying volatility of financial time series is given by the presence of long-range dependence of periodic type due mainly to time-of-the-day phenomena. In this work we introduce a model able to describe the empirical evidence given by this periodic longmemory behaviour. The model, named PLM-GARCH (Periodic Long Memory GARCH), represents a natural e...

Nonstationary ARIMA processes and nearly nonstationary ARMA processes, such as autoregressive processes having a root of the AR polynomial close to the unit circle, have sample autocovariance and spectral properties that are, in practice, almost indistinguishable from those of a stationary longmemory process, such as a Fractionally Integrated ARMA (ARFIMA) process. Because of this, model misspe...

A new sufficient condition for the existence of a stationary causal solution of an ARCH(∞) equation is provided. This condition allows to consider coefficients with power-law decay, so that it can be applied to the so-called FIGARCH processes, whose existence is thus proved.

Autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average ARFIMA pro cesses are widely used for modeling time series exhibiting both long memory and short memory behavior Properties of Toeplitz matrices associated with the spectral density functions of Gaussian ARFIMA processes are used to compute di erential geometric quantities INTRODUCTION Time series data occurring in several areas such as geol...