SEPTEMBER 2002 THE JOURNAL OF FIXED INCOME 1 H edge fund strategies came under intense scrutiny with the stressful market events surrounding the near collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). Several studies were sponsored by regulatory agencies in the financial markets, including the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets [1999], and the Bank for International Settlements [1999a...

The management of financial portfolios or funds constitutes a widely known problematic in financial markets which normally requires a rigorous analysis in order to select the most profitable assets. The presented paper proposes a new approach, based on Intelligent Computation, in particular genetic algorithms, which aims to manage a financial portfolio by using technical analysis indicators (EM...

In this paper, we present a few simple market-timing strategies that appear to outperform the “buy-and-hold” strategy, with real-time data from 1970 to 2000. Our focus is on spreads between the E/P ratio of the S&P 500 index and interest rates. Extremely low spreads, as compared to their historical ranges, appear to predict higher frequencies of subsequent market downturns in monthly data. We c...

Several empirical studies have documented that the signs of excess stock returns are, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider the predictive ability of the binary dependent dynamic probit model in predicting the direction of monthly excess stock returns. The recession forecast obtained from the model for a binary recession indicator appears to be the most useful predictive varia...

Technical analysis is the forecasting of future price movement based on an examination of past prices. Some scientist found that the study of historical prices cannot predict future prices. In this research we intend to study which technical analysis tool is better for prediction of future price movement, for this purpose we are studying two the most strongest technical analysis tools is called...

This paper examines the value relevance of accounting fundamentals in the Mexican Stock Market ([BMV] – Bolsa Mexicana de Valores). The research question that motivated the paper was: Can accounting fundamentals provide relevant information to better understand firm value? More specifically, the paper examines whether the application of an accounting fundamental strategy to select stocks of a p...