Bahrain is a very small oil-exporting country in the Middle East with a fixed exchange rate against the US dollar and has no restricton capital flows. Because its economy evolves around the oil sector, its economy is thought to be vulnerable to oil price movements. It is feared that the recent oil price hike would feed from foreign assets to monetary base and money supply to inflation. Empirica...

Acute volatile movements in primary commodity prices have drawn enough interests from empirical researchers. Exports of these commodities account for the bulk of export earnings of developing countries. The traditional demand based framework has been unable to explain the marked deterioration in these prices during 1980s. This paper tries to ascertain the role played by real oil prices in expla...

This study is an attempt to examine the effects of external shocks on macroeconomic variables in selective small open emerging economies in Southeast Asia. A quarterly Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, including 33 countries, was used throughout 1979–2013. The empirical results showed that the target countries were affected by external shocks, especially the shocks in the U.S, Euro are...

When the U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003, many economists feared that the war would lead to a sharp decline in Iraqi oil production, a spike in oil prices, and a woeful economy that would follow the scripts of the oil shocks of 1973, 1978, and 1990. There was in fact a moderate decline in world oil production, and real oil prices increased from $20 in 2001:4 to $62 in 2006:3. But the ailments a...

The downtrend in oil prices beginning in 2014 represents a challenge for smallopen developing and exporting economies like Libya. This stems from the importance of government revenue generated from the natural resource sector in financing government consumption and investment expenditures as well as capital imports. The dependency on the natural resource sector and a relatively weak non-natural...