[1] Detection and attribution studies of observed surface temperature changes have served to consolidate our understanding of the climate system and its past and future behaviour. Most recent studies analysing up-to-date observations have relied on general circulation models (GCMs) to provide estimates of the responses to various external forcings. Here we revisit a methodology which instead es...

Internal climate variability at the centennial time scale is investigated using long control integrations from three state-of-the-art global coupled general circulation models. In the absence of external forcing, all three models produce centennial variability in the mean zonal sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) gradients in the equatorial Pacific with counterparts in th...

captures the maximum possible range of changes in surface temperature and precipitation for three continental-scale regions. We find that, of the CMIP5 GCMs with 6-hourly fields available, three simulate the key regional aspects of climate sufficiently poorly that we consider the projections from those models ‘implausible’ (MIROC-ESM, MIROCESM-CHEM, and IPSL-CM5B-LR). From the remaining models,...

The impacts of climate change on groundwater are poorly constrained, particularly in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa where global circulation models (GCMs) project different directions precipitation change. Moreover, the timing when can be differentiated from natural variability has not been quantified. Here, for first time, we estimate time emergence (ToE) levels, using series eight sites a...

This study presents an assessment of projection and uncertainty drought characteristics (frequency DF, area Da) using three indices (Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI; Standardized Precipitation SPI; Evapotranspiration SPEI) in the humid subtropical Pearl River basin southern China during period 2021–2050. The is based on 13 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under Representative Concent...

The goal of this study is to evaluate annual and seasonal inflow from the Volga catchment area Caspian Sea during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM ~21,000 years ago) using paleoclimate modeling data. first approach based on LGM simulation by general circulation models (GCMs) in framework Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) Coupled (CMIP6). We used four GCMs: INM-CM4-8, MIROC-ES2L, A...