We find that covariance matrix forecasts for an international interest rate portfolio generated by a model that incorporates interest-rate level volatility effects perform best with respect to statistical loss functions. However, within a value-at-risk (VaR) framework, the relative performance of the covariance matrix forecasts depends greatly on the VaR distributional assumption. Simple foreca...

This paper develops a generalization of the formulas proposed by Kuttner (2001) and others for purposes of measuring the effects of a change in the federal funds target on Treasury yields of different maturities. The generalization avoids the need to condition on the date of the target change and allows for deviations of the effective fed funds rate from the target as well as gradual learning b...

This paper follows up on recent studies of the Eurozone interest rate pass-through. Using a generalized empirical approach that allows for a variety of different specifications of the pass-through, including asymmetric adjustment, the role of interest rate expectations, proxied by EURIBOR futures, in determining retail banking product pricing is explored. It is shown that the pass-through is fa...

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models featuring imperfect competition and nominal rigidities have become central for the analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism and for understanding the conduct of monetary policy. However, it is agreed that the benchmark model fails to generate the persistence of output and in‡ation that is observed in the data. Moreover, it cannot provide a th...

In this paper, we consider expected value, variance and worst–case optimization of nonlinear models. We present algorithms for computing optimal expected values, and variance, based on iterative Taylor expansions. We establish convergence and consider the relative merits of policies based on expected value optimization and worst-case robustness. The latter is a minimax strategy and ensures opti...

This paper investigates how a firm’s borrowing cost evolves as it ages. Using a new data set of more than 200,000 bank-dependent small firms for 1997-2002, we find the following. First, the distribution of borrowing costs tends to become less skewed to the right over time, which can be partially attributed to “selection” (i.e., exits of defaulting firms reduce the total borrowing costs), but is...

This paper proposes an empirical Bayes approach for Markov switching autoregressions that can constrain some of the state-dependent parameters (regression coefficients and error variances) to be approximately equal across regimes. By flexibly reducing the dimension of the parameter space, this can help to ensure regime separation and to detect the Markov switching nature of the data. The permut...

Currently, Eurodollars and fed funds markets combined trade about $220 billion in funds daily, the vast majority of which with overnight tenor. In this paper, we document several features of these wholesale unsecured dollar funding markets. Using daily confidential data on wholesale unsecured borrowing and reserve balances, we show that foreign banks, which make up most of the trading volumes i...