In contrast to conventional conditional mean approaches, this study uses quantile regression techniques to present some new statistical evidence on the link between inflation uncertainty and the level of inflation with cross sectional data in 161 countries for period from 1961-2002. We find new evidence that suggests positive inflation shocks have stronger impacts on inflation uncertainty acros...

N recent years, many countries have experienced “stagflation,” a period of high and rising inflation and unemployment. Over this time, higher inflation increasingly has come to be blamed for higher unemployment and reduced growth of real output. This contrasts sharply with previously held notions that there was either a long-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment or a “natural rate of ...

This paper focuses on internal and external factors, which influence the inflation rate in developing countries. A monetary model of inflation rate, capable of incorporating both monetary and fiscal policies as well as other internal and external factors, was developed and tested on Iranian data. It was found that, over the long run, a higher exchange rate leads to a higher price and that the f...

Over the past twenty years, macroeconomic performance has improved in industrialized and developing countries alike. In a broad cross-section of countries inflation volatility has fallen markedly while output variability has either fallen or risen only slightly. This increased stability can be attributed to either: 1) more efficient policymaking by the monetary authority, 2) a reduction in the ...

Economists have long argued that the best, surest way for a central bank to do its job is to adopt some sort of rule and stick to it. They reason that a central bank’s short-term objectives may be inconsistent with its long-term goals; a rule should prevent the bank from undermining long-range goals for the sake of short-term results.1 Using a rule also makes a central bank’s actions more trans...

We investigate the range of inflationary universe models driven by scalar fields possessing a general interaction potential of the form V (φ) = V0φ n exp(−λφm). Power-law, de Sitter and intermediate inflationary universes emerge as special cases together with several new varieties of inflation. Analysing the behaviour of these models at the extrema of φ we derive sufficient constraints on the m...

We examine global dynamics under learning in New Keynesian models with price level targeting that is subject to the zero lower bound. The role of forward guidance is analyzed under transparency about the policy rule. Properties of transparent and non-transparent regimes are compared to each other and to the corresponding cases of inflation targeting. Robustness properties for different regimes ...