A Kalman-Filtered Feature-space approach is taken to forecast changes in the ISEQ (Irish Stock Exchange Equity Overall) Index using the previous five days' lagged returns solely as inputs. The resulting model is tantamount to a time-varying (adaptive) technical trading rule, one which achieves an out-of-sample Sharpe ('reward-to-variability') Ratio far superior to the 'buy-and-hold' strategy an...

The change in the business model of venture capitalists from investing locally towards investing across borders started to intensify in the late 1990s. According to a dataset of European and NorthAmerican countries, we find that countries with higher expected growth and higher lagged stock market returns receive larger net cross-border venture capital inflows. Thus, portfolio companies located ...

We consider a set of linear regression models that differ in their choice of regressors, and derive a method for inference that controls for the set of models under investigation. The method is based around an estimate of the distribution for a class of statistics, which can depend on two or more models. An example is the largest R2 over a set of regression models. The distribution will typical...

This study examines the impact of investor sentiment on the Taiwan Futures Exchange. The application of the EGB2 model reveals the existence of a clear and significant relationship between sentiment and volatility, particularly in the MSCI, TE and TF futures markets. We find that all sentiment variables have limited forecasting power, and that negative return shocks will ultimately lead to an i...

This paper examines the extent to which the daily movements of three large emerging markets stock indices are predictable. Lagged technical indicators are used as explanatory variables. In the analysis we employed seven classification techniques and assessed the discriminatory power of the classifiers through the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The results show tha...

We estimate the data generating process of daily excess returns of 20 major Ger-man stocks in a CAPM framework with time varying betas. Our sample spans a 23 year period from 1974 to 1996. An asymmetric dependence of volatility on lagged innovations is taken into account. We introduce beta impulse response functions to shed light on the structural implications of systematic risk associated with...

Article history: This paper explores whether the relevance of a conditional multifacReceived 12 July 2012 tor model and autocorrelation in predicting the Russian aggregate Received in revised form 2 October 2012 stock return fluctuates over time. The source of return predictability is Accepted 16 December 2012 shown to vary considerably with information flow. In general, Available online 22 Dec...

This paper investigates stock returns behaviour as a function of lagged idiosyncratic risk in the Fama-French three-factor model using two approaches to estimating idiosyncratic risk. The application of ordinary least squares and quantile regression methods to heteroskedasticity corrected data in a panel structure reveals that the form of relationship does not change with the method of estimati...

Financial economists have derived equilibrium asset pricing models such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965) and the consumption-oriented CAPM of Breeden (1979). Subsequent work (e.g., Black, Jensen, and Scholes 1972; Fama and MacBeth 1973; Breeden, Gibbons, and Litzenberger 1989) examined the empirical performance of unconditional versions of these asse...

We examine the impact of Twitter sentiment on returns four selected bond indices via selection relevant threshold variables, such as S&P 500 Index, VIX, and MSCI World Index. If overreaction or underreaction to significant changes in market occur regularly (De Bondt Thaler, 1985, 1987; Jegadeesh Titman, 1993), it is assumed that users respond with different intensities case rising, falling rath...