investing in stock markets usually is involved in more risks than the bounds and bank deposits. it is expected that resulting returns (capital gain plus yields) from trading in a stock market to be more than those of in a risk free investment. therefore, developing accurate techniques of estimation and forecasting in volatility analysis of financial markets is inevitable. sum squares of weekly ...

We use the adaptive LASSO from the statistical learning literature to identify economically connected industries in a general predictive regression framework. The framework permits complex industry interdependencies, including both direct and indirect sectoral links. Consistent with gradual information diffusion across economically connected industries, we find extensive evidence that lagged re...

The characteristics of the distribution of security returns, such as skewness, play a significant role in financial theory and practice. This paper examines whether conditional skewness of daily aggregate market returns is predictable and investigates the economic mechanisms underlying this predictability. In both developed and emerging markets, there is strong evidence that lagged returns pred...

I extend the Warther (1995) evidence to show that stock market returns are related to contemporaneous flows into mutual funds that invest in risky stocks and bonds, but are unrelated to flows into funds that invest in safer stocks and bonds. I examine whether common sources of predictability in returns and flows can explain this contemporaneous relation. I find that variables with predictive ab...

This paper examines the shortand long-run dynamics among institutional capital flows and returns in private real estate markets. The main tool of analysis we employ is a vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which both institutional capital flows and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation simultaneous system and in which we also control for various financial a...

This paper examines the shortand long-run dynamics among institutional capital flows and returns in private real estate markets. The main tool of analysis we employ is a vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which both institutional capital flows and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation simultaneous system and in which we also control for various financial a...

Using a sample of 56,144 annual property observations during 2000 – 2011 we analyze the determinants of capital expenditures and their sub-components at the property level when accounting for uncertainty. We argue that uncertainty impacts the relationships between interest rates, profitability and capital expenditures and that these relationships may differ not only by property type, but also b...

This paper examines the relationship between stock returns and inflation. We focus on various econometric techniques to test this relationship, using monthly values of the Athens Stock Exchange Price index and the Greek Consumer Price index over the period 1988-2002. The results from a simple OLS model show evidence of a positive but not significant relationship, while when we consider a system...

We develop asset pricing models' implications for portfolio efficiency when there is conditioning information in the form of a set of lagged instruments. A model of expected returns identifies a portfolio that should be minimum variance efficient with respect to the conditioning information. Our framework refines previous tests of portfolio efficiency by using a given set of conditioning inform...