We propose and estimate fundamental models for natural gas prices. We compare how well these models, as well as univariate statistical time series models of NG prices and the NYMEX futures price for natural gas, forecast spot gas prices. We find that a univariate time series model that incorporates fundamental variables related to production, storage, weather, and aggregate output performs best...

The Australian wine auction market is characterised by large variations in price between different vintages of the same wine. Yet the release prices of those wines exhibit considerably less volatility. This paper addresses the question: to what extent can we anticipate the future price of such icon wines from information available at the time of release? Specifically, it looks at the importance...

The paper investigates the long run behavior of house prices and their dynamic interactions with bank credits, real output and interest rate for the case of Malaysia. Apart from the aggregate house prices, the analysis also covers various house price sub-indices, namely, the terraced house price index, the semidetached house price index, the detached house price index and the high-rise price in...

0

This paper addresses the incremental effects of two anomalous variables: pricescaled one-year-ahead analysts’ early-in-the-year earnings forecasts from Elgers, Lo, and Pfeiffer (2001) and price-scaled implicit firm values from Frankel and Lee (1998), where implicit firm values are defined in a manner consistent with the Ohlson (1995) residual income model. Because analysts’ forecasts are input ...

A number of research had been carried out to forecast stock price based on technical indicators, which rely purely on historical stock price data. Nevertheless, their performance is not always satisfactory. In this paper, the effect of using hybrid market indicators of technical, fundamental indicators and experts opinion for stock price prediction is examined. Input variables extracted from th...

abstract the aim of this study was to selecting the suitable model for forecast land, production and price of sugar beet in iran. for this purpose, models applied to forecast are arima, single and double exponential smoothing, harmonic, artificial neural network and arch for period 1993-2008. results of durbin-watson tests, land, production and price of sugar beet series were found non stochast...

energy carriers including electricity play a critical role in human societies development, and as the time passes, their importance in the human socio-economic life rises. therefore, knowing electricity demand and the factors affecting on it could have an effective role in economic decision-making. while dividing electricity demand into different consuming sectors, this study uses economic vari...

The paper discusses two partial equilibrium models, one is a synthetic model (GAPsi) and the other an econometrically estimated model (AG-MEMOD). While the synthetic model incorporates only price impacts and some shifts, the econometric model also reflects other influencing factors. Price formation includes policy measures as price wedges, or as explaining variables in key price equations or pr...