The need to represent uncertainty resulting from model error in ensemble weather prediction systems has spawned a variety of ad hoc stochastic algorithms based on plausible assumptions about sub-grid-scale variability. Currently, few studies have been carried out to prove the veracity of such schemes and it seems likely that some implementations of stochastic parametrization are misrepresentati...

Abstract Precipitation is a key component of the global water cycle and plays crucial role in flooding, droughts, supply. One way to manage its socioeconomic effects based on precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, an important step improve by diagnosing NWP biases. In this study, we investigate biases European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated...

Abstract. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) mission is to deliver high-quality global medium-range numerical weather predictions and monitoring of the Earth system its member states. modelling forecasting natural hazards are an important part this mission. Challenges in area include integration innovative observations into system; realistic representations water, en...

Early and skilful prediction of the Negro River maximum water levels at Manaus is critical for effective mitigation measures to safeguard lives livelihoods. Using dynamical seasonal hindcasts, from six centres, we investigate extending lead time previously developed statistical models, which issue forecasts in March Manaus. The original forecast models used observed rainfall as major predictor....

A representation of atmospheric chemistry has been included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new chemistry modules complement the aerosol modules of the IFS for atmospheric composition, which is named C-IFS. C-IFS for chemistry supersedes a coupled system in which chemical transport model (CTM) Model for OZone and ...