The purpose of this paper is to describe prediction efficiencies of various suboptimal predictors relative to the efficient (kriging) minimum mean square error predictor in spatial models containing spatial lags in both the dependent variable and the error term. Suboptimal predictors have been suggested in the literature. One reason is that they are suggested on an intuitive level; another is t...

The "productivity paradox" of information systems (IS) is that, despite enormous improvements in the underlying technology, the benefits of IS spending have not been found in aggregate output statistics. One explanation is that IS spending may lead to increases in product quality or variety which tend to be overlooked in aggregate output statistics, even if they increase sales at the firm-level...

This paper considers the problem of inference for partially identified econometric models. The class of models studied are defined by a population objective function Q(θ, P ) for θ ∈ Θ. The second argument indicates the dependence of the objective function on P , the distribution of the observed data. Unlike the classical extremum estimation framework, it is not assumed that Q(θ, P ) has a uniq...

A range of parameter changes in I(1) cointegrated time series are not reflected in econometric models thereof, in that many shifts are not easily detected by conventional tests. The breaks in question are changes that leave the unconditional expectations of the I(0) components unaltered. Thus, dynamics, adjustment speeds etc. may alter without detection. However, shifts in long-run means are ge...

K e y w o r d s: Family of Sign RCA Models, Value at Risk, backtesting, loss function.