We attempt to determine the impact of production decisions on the price of heating oil. A model for the production of distillate fuel oil is proposed. Its solution, obtained using stochastic dynamic programming, closely matches history. By perturbing the problem in a deliberate manner, we can determine the value of additional units of inventory by examining diierences in costs. Using these diie...

This paper uses STR (Smooth Transition Regression) model to study the nonlinear relation between CPI in China and international oil price. The results show that the change of CPI in current period has a positive effect to the next period, and the non-linear effect of international oil price almost completely reveals the changing characteristics of CPI.

Crude oil pricing is commonly expressed as a formula referenced to Brent or WTI crude oil. The final price of these two qualities and the spread between WTI and Brent can drive the decision when the purchase of a crude oil cargo is evaluated. A crude oil price-forecasting model is presented. It is based on past data, inventory level and volatility index and it is derived with a neuro fuzzy infe...

This study examines how crude oil price volatility affected the stock returns of major global and gas corporations during three oil-price wars that took place between October 1991 June 2020. Episodes considered include 1998 Saudi Arabia – Venezuela war, 2014–2016 conflict 2020 Russia war in a time unprecedented crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic. The persistence prices times specific is capture...

in this paper we investigate the effect of oil price shocks on stock market index in iran, by using of a structural var (svar) approach. we used four variables in the model namely kilian index, global oil supply, real oil price and real stock market index. the data are monthly and spanning the period 1997m10-2014m12. we identify the effect of four different shocks on stock market including oil ...

a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classifications: C51 N70 Keywords: Crude oil price volatility GARCH Covariates Modified dummy variables OPEC announcements WTI crude oil Several times a year, OPEC hosts conferences among its members to agree on further oil production policies. Prior to OPEC conferences, there is usually rampant speculation about which decision concerning world oil production levels (n...

in general, energy prices, such as those of crude oil, are affected by deterministic events such as seasonal changes as well as non-deterministic events such as geopolitical events. it is the non-deterministic events which cause the prices to vary randomly and makes price prediction a difficult task. one could argue that these random changes act like noise which effects the deterministic variat...

The Hubbert model assumes that the worldwide production of crude oil will follow a bell-shaped curve. Oil prices are expected to increase, or even to spike up, at or after the production peak. However, the Hubbert model provides no description of price trends. We also lack historical data that can be used as a guide, since so far there have been no cases of a complete, worldwide depletion of a ...

This paper studies the behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices. Oil prices, particularly spot and short-term futures prices, appear to have switched from I(0) to I(1) in early 2000s. To better understand this apparent change in persistence, a factor model of oil prices is proposed, where the prices are decomposed into long-term and short-term components. The change in the persistence beha...