A class of autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models proposed by J rgensen and Song [Journal of Applied Probability (1998), vol. 35, pp. 78–92] with exponential dispersion model margins are useful to deal with non-normal stationary time series with high-order autocorrelation. One property associated with the class of models is that the projection process takes the exact form of the classical ...

In this paper, a comparison study is presented on artificial intelligence and time series models in 1-hour-ahead wind speed forecasting. Three types of typical neural networks, namely adaptive linear element, multilayer perceptrons, and radial basis function, and ARMA time series model are investigated. The wind speed data used are the hourly mean wind speed data collected at Binalood site in I...

This paper presents an improvement of hybrid of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) for long-term machine state forecasting based on vibration data. In this study, vibration data is considered as a combination of two components which are deterministic data and error. The deterministic component may describe the degradation index of machi...

The needs of accuracy of machines are strictly increasing for the manufacturing processes. It is costly to use high precision machine to achieve the goal. Therefore, if the forecasting of errors can be obtained from the gathered past error values, it allows the control system to compensate the errors. In this paper, the simulations of manufacturing processes are using the ARMA and ARMAX models....

There have been a lot of works relating to time series analysis. In this paper, the Bayesian analysis method for ARMA model is discussed and an application example is given. Firstly, the Bayesian theoretic results about AR model and the determination approach for model order are obtained. Then, the approach are presented for Bayesian analysis of MA and ARMA models. As its application, the forec...