Global change poses significant challenges for ecosystem conservation. At regional scales, climate change may lead to extensive shifts in species distributions and widespread extirpations or extinctions. At landscape scales, land use and invasive species disrupt ecosystem function and reduce species richness. However, a lack of spatially explicit models of risk to ecosystems makes it difficult ...

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (1Tglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of 1Tglob are required. The current availability o...

Atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are analyzed to better understand model variability and assess the importance of various forcing mechanisms on stratospheric trends during the 20th century. While models represent the climatology of the stratosphere reasonably well in comparison wit...

Projections of ice-sheet mass balance require regional ocean warming projections derived from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). However, the coarse resolution of AOGCMs: (1) may lead to systematic or AOGCM-specific biases and (2) makes it difficult to identify relevant water masses. Here, we employ a large-scale metric of Antarctic Shelf Bottom Water (ASBW) to investigate ci...

[1] In a future climate warmed by increased greenhouse gases, increases of precipitation intensity do not have a uniform spatial distribution. Here we analyze a multi-model AOGCM data set to examine processes that produce the geographic pattern of these precipitation intensity changes over land. In the tropics, general increases in water vapor associated with positive SST anomalies in the warme...

امروزه ورود به حوزه مدیریت کیفیت برای سازمان‌ها از اهمیت ویژه‌­ای برخوردار است. مدل­های تعالی سازمانی ابزاری است که را در این مسیر رهنمون می­‌کند. بدین منظور، ازجمله شبکه بانکی کشور، رویکردهای گوناگونی سازمان خود راستای تحقق ارزش‌های مدل­‌های استقرار می­کنند؛ اما محدودیت منابع موجود قبیل هزینه، نیروی انسانی، فرهنگ و غیره، تمامی رویکردها میسر نمی‌­سازد؛ ازاین‌رو مسئله اصلی کدام بیشترین تأثیر ارت...