We show that there can be significant difference between risk preferences of individual investors and aggregate preferences toward risk in the economy. To demonstrate this, we investigate aggregate properties of an economy where all investors have convex utility functions corresponding to risk seeking behavior. In the case of risk seeking individual agents with identical initial endowments, ass...

[Abstract] Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic flow management (TFM) decision-making is based primarily on a comparison of deterministic predictions of demand and capacity at National Airspace System (NAS) elements such as airports, fixes and enroute sectors. The current Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) and its decisionsupport tools ignore the stochastic nature of the predict...

We address the problem of aggregating demand across a group of consumers, who are identical in terms of wealth and face identical price vectors, but vary in their chosen consumption bundles. We show that, when a stochastic demand function is constructed to aggregate a number of deterministic demand functions, satisfaction of the weak axiom of stochastic revealed preference by this stochastic de...

A negative aggregate demand shock driven by household deleveraging is responsible for a large fraction of the decline in U.S. employment from 2007 to 2009. The deleveraging – aggregate demand hypothesis predicts that employment losses in the non-tradable sector will be higher in high leverage U.S. counties that experienced the bulk of the deleveraging process, while losses in the tradable secto...

This paper studies an aggregate demand prediction problem relevant in smart grids. In our model, an aggregator agent is responsible for eliciting the demand forecasts of a number of self-interested home agents and purchasing electricity for them. Forecasts are given in form of probability distributions, and generating them incurs costs proportional to their precision. The paper presents a novel...

A drop in aggregate demand driven by shocks to household balance sheets is responsible for a large fraction of the decline in U.S. employment from 2007 to 2009. The aggregate demand channel for unemployment predicts that employment losses in the non-tradable sector are higher in high leverage U.S. counties that were most severely impacted by the balance sheet shock, while losses in the tradable...

This paper revisits two recent studies that estimate the dynamic response of real wages to aggregate demand shocks. Using identical empirical techniques—structural VARs with long-run identifying restrictions—and similar post-war data, [Gamber and Joutz 83 (1993) 1387] and [Spencer 36 (1998) 120] report contradictory findings. After careful examination, I conclude that the reason for this puzzli...