This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992), who detected evidence of in-sample predictability in international equity and foreign exchange markets...

MOTIVATION In microarray gene expression studies, the number of replicated microarrays is usually small because of cost and sample availability, resulting in unreliable variance estimation and thus unreliable statistical hypothesis tests. The unreliable variance estimation is further complicated by the fact that the technology-specific variance is intrinsically intensity-dependent. RESULTS Th...

A variety of deadlock control policies based on Petri nets have been proposed for automated manufacturing systems (AMSs). Most of them prevent deadlocks by adding monitors for emptiable siphons that, without an appropriate control policy, can cause deadlocks, where the resources in a system under consideration are assumed to be reliable. When resources are unreliable, it is infeasible or imposs...

We consider the setting of estimating the mean of a random variable by a sequential stopping rule Monte Carlo (MC) method. The performance of a typical second moment based sequential stopping rule MC method is shown to be unreliable in such settings both by numerical examples and through analysis. By analysis and approximations, we construct a higher moment based stopping rule which is shown in...

Recent scholarship has increasingly recognised the crucial role of political narratives in and for European integration. Since its earliest days, supporters have justified integration by telling stories about beneficial contribution to peace, prosperity, democracy. In this article special issue, we contribute burgeoning literature on (counter)narratives ‘union’ (any beyond intergovernmental coo...

The aim of this paper is it to identify whether Australian media companies moved online with a clear business model in mind or in an ad-hoc manner. In-depth interviews were conducted with four Internet media managers from two large Australian media organisations. All four had been involved in Web publishing from its early stages and had extensive knowledge of the development of Web publishing i...

OBJECTIVE Studying personal narratives can generate understanding of how people experience physical and mental illness. However, few studies have explored narratives of engagement in health positive behaviours, with none focusing on men specifically. Thus, we sought to examine men's experiences of their efforts to engage in and maintain healthy behaviours, focusing on meditation as an example o...