For several decades health care expenditure growth has outpaced growth in GPD and incomes throughout the developed world. The aging global population as well as the growing obesity related health epidemic indicate that this trend will continue. In 2010 17% of adults were obese and more than 50% were overweight in the European Union. While these numbers continue to grow, the recent global financ...

Diabatic processes can alter Rossby wave structure; consequently, errors arising from model processes propagate downstream. However, the chaotic spread of forecasts from initial condition uncertainty renders it difficult to trace back from root-mean-square forecast errors to model errors. Here diagnostics unaffected by phase errors are used, enabling investigation of systematic errors in Rossby...

Bayesian learning implies decreasing weights on prior beliefs and increasing weights on the accuracy of the analyst’s past forecast record, as the number of forecast errors comprising her forecast record (its length) increases. Consistent with this model of investor learning, empirical tests show that investors’ reactions to forecast news are increasing in the product of the accuracy and length...

A Point-Over-Threshold approach using a reparameterization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) has been used to assess changes in the daily rainfall Barcelona series (1854–2006). A Bayesian approach, considering the suitable scale and physical features of the phenomenon, has been used to look for these alterations. Two different models have been assessed: existence of abrupt changes in...

[1] Knowledge of trace gas fluxes at the land surface is essential for understanding the impact of human activities on the composition and radiative balance of the atmosphere. An ability to derive fluxes at the regional scale (on the order of 10–10 km), at the scale of ecosystems and political borders, is crucial for policy and management responses. Lagrangian (‘‘air mass-following’’) aircraft ...