Fully rational agents are allowed to optimize over expectations formation technologies in an environment where it is costly to collect and process information. It is shown in a general equilibrium framework that optimization over expectations by rational and forward oriented agents can lead to endogenous instability. Specifically, we illustrate that resulting equilibria can be both chaotic and ...

The Euler equation model for investment with adjustment costs and variable capital utilization is estimated using aggregate US post-war data econometric methods that are robust to weak instruments exploit information in possible structural changes. Various alternative identification assumptions considered, including external instruments, obtained from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium mode...

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices, and the Great Moderation are linked. First we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until the second quarter of 1982, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium ...

We study how total factor productivity (TFP), energy prices and the great moderation are linked. First, we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until 1982:II, energy prices negatively affected productivity. This spill-over has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, the ...