Abstract A key task when developing a ground-motion model (GMM) is to demonstrate that it captures an appropriate level of epistemic uncertainty. This true whether multiple ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are used or backbone approach followed. The GMM developed for seismic hazard assessment the site UK new-build nuclear power plant as example discuss complementary approaches assess ...

Reliability assessment in presence of epistemic uncertainty leads to consider the failure probability as a quantity depending on state knowledge about uncertain input parameters. The joint distribution is often learnt from small-sized dataset provided by operating experience. computed depends estimated marginal distributions and copula distribution. This paper develops reliability-oriented sens...

A Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) [1] aims at estimating the probability of occurrence of different sizes of earthquakes that may affect the NPP and assesses the NPP response to such earthquakes. The results of the assessment are presented in terms of seismically induced Core Damage Frequency (CDF) and Large Early Release Frequency (LERF). SPRA is a multi-...

A traditional theory of uncertainty says that beliefs come in degrees. Degrees of belief (“credences”) have real number values between  and , where  conventionally represents certain belief,  represents certain disbelief, and values in between represent degrees of uncertainty. We have elegant, well-understood normative theories for credences: norms for how credences should hang together at ...

In the scope of a scenario-based risk analysis, this study aims to quantify and rank various types of epistemic uncertainties that enter into the derivation of fragility functions for common buildings. Using a numerical model of a test structure (a reinforced concrete five-story building with infill panels on the first two floors), a first type of uncertainty is introduced, consisting of the me...

In this paper, we introduce and discuss a new framework for the modeling and revision of probabilistic belief. The epistemic states encode degrees of belief topped by second-order uncertainty using special Spohn-type ranking measures over subjective probability distributions. The revision strategy, which handles incoming information translated into linear probability constraints, is based on va...

In the paper aspect of comparability alternatives in decision making problem by imprecise or incomplete information isexamined. In particular, new definitions of transitivity based on the measure of the intensity preference between pairsof alternatives in epistemic and ontic case is presented and its application to solve decision making problem is proposed.

The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible dismptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulato~ period specified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191,40 CFR 194) and ...