Seasonal climate prediction offers potentially useful information for water managers. However, implementing forecast information is challenging due to the probabilistic nature of forecasts and limited demonstrations of usefulness. In this study, an adaptive groundwater pricing model utilizing operational seasonal climate forecasts was evaluated for groundwater management. The price for groundwa...

This research analyzed the influence of the differences in the forecast accuracy of fundamental values on the financial market. As a result of intensive experiments in the market, we made the following interesting findings: 1 improvements in forecast accuracy of fundamentalists can contribute to an increase in the number of fundamentalists; 2 certain situations might occur, according to the lev...

This paper presents a forecasting approach, in which stock price direction in the next day can be predicted based on nonlinear probability models and technical indicators. The proposed method incorporates various indicators into Logit, Probit, and Extreme Value models permitting a decision maker to forecast the direction of stock movements more efficiently. The utilized indicators include Movin...

Weather derivatives enable energy companies to protect themselves against weather risk. Weather ensemble predictions are generated from atmospheric models and consist of multiple future scenarios for a weather variable. They can be used to forecast the density of the payoff from a weather derivative. The mean of the density is the fair price of the derivative, and the distribution about the mea...

This technical companion serves as a supplementary material. We first show the proof of Proposition 5 of the paper when the retailer follows a ConDOI policy. We extend our main theoretical conclusions to three settings: (1) the retailer follows a ConDOI policy with an optimal demand forecast; (2) the retailer follows the general linear replenishment policy (GOUTP) and general demand (MMFE); and...

S tock returns of companies listed on the stock exchange is one of the most important criteria in assessing the macroeconomic. This study investigates the effect of exchange rate Volatility on the stock exchange Returns of D8 countries. It takes monthly data during the period (2008:1-2015:6) constituting 90 observations. At first we used Panel-GARCH model to estimate Exchange Rate Vo...

Research in finance and economics suggests that a firm’s stock price will be biased upwards when investors have differences of opinion and when pessimistic investors have high short-sale constraints. We build on this prior research and examine how managers respond in their forecasting behavior when their firm is overvalued due to these two constraints. We construct a measure of overvaluation us...

Prior studies evaluate the relative importance of the sources of value that financial analysts bring to the market based on the price impact of forecast revisions over the event time. We find that management earnings forecasts influence the timing and precision of analyst forecasts. More importantly, evidence suggests that prior studies’ finding of weaker (stronger) stock-price responses to for...