F ollowing World War II, the quantity and quality of macroeconomic data expanded dramatically. The most important factor was the regular publication of the National Income and Product Accounts, which contained hundreds of consistently defined and measured statistics that summarized overall economic activity. As the data supply expanded, entrepreneurs realized that a market existed for applying ...

there are different ideas and opinions about the effects of macroeconomic variables on real and nominal variables. to answer the question of whether changes in macroeconomic variables as a political tool is useful over a business cycle, understanding the effect of macroeconomic variables on economic growth is important. in the present study, the bayesian vector autoregresive model and seasonali...

This article o¤ers an equilibrium analysis of the in‡uence of insecure property rights on macroeconomic outcomes. The purpose of the analysis is to show how principles of economics without the ideal of the rule of law can deepen our understanding of economic backwardness and development.

In the paper we study the relationship between macroeconomic and stock market volatility, using S&P500 data for the period 1970-2001. We find weak evidence of long memory in volatility once structural change is accounted for and a twofold linkage between stock market and macroeconomic volatility: macroeconomic volatility explains the persitent dynamics in stock market volatility, while stock ma...

In the common jargon used by non-specialist commentators in newspapers or TV programs, business cycle downturns are sometimes described in terms of economic collapses, crashes or even earthquakes. Does these comparisons make any sense but for literary license? In particular, are economic recessions and recoveries governed at large by the same statistical law underlying earthquakes' occurrence? ...

Macroeconomics was born as a distinct field in the 1940s, as a part of the intellectual response to the Great Depression. The term then referred to the body of knowledge and expertise that we hoped would prevent the recurrence of that economic disaster. My thesis in this lecture is that macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded: Its central problem of depression-prevention has been so...

Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting, which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and falls with theory, receded following the decline of Keynesian theory. In recent years, however, powerful new dynamic stocha...

We show that decomposing macroeconomic risks across horizon is key to uncover a tight link between risk premia and the real economy. Exposure in four-year returns to innovations in macroeconomic growth and volatility with a matching half-life of over four years is priced in a wide variety of test assets. Shorter-term risks are not priced. Importantly, we show that long-term growth and volatilit...