The concept of updating (or conditioning or revising) a probability distribution is fundamental in (machine) learning and predictive coding theory. two main approaches for doing so are called Pearl's rule Jeffrey's rule. Here we make, the first time, mathematically precise what distinguishes them: increases validity (expected value) decreases (Kullback-Leibler) divergence. This forms an instanc...

Although misjudgment is an issue of primary concern to the justice system and public safety, the response to misjudgment by the human brain remains unclear. We used fMRI to record neural activity in participants that encountered four possible judgments by the justice system with two basic components: whether the judgment was right or wrong [accuracy: right vs. wrong (misjudgment)] and whether t...