Abstract Simple random-sampling resolutions of the raven paradox relevantly diverge from scientific practice. We develop a stratified model, yielding better fit and apparently rehabilitating simple random sampling as legitimate idealization. However, neither accommodates second concern, objection potential bias. third model that crucially invokes causal considerations, novel resolution handles ...

A class of Monte Carlo algorithms for probability propagation in belief networks is given. The simulation is based on a two steps procedure. The rst one is a node deletion technique to calculate the 'a posteriori' distribution on a variable, with the particularity that when exact computations are too costly, they are carried out in an approximate way. In the second step, the computations done i...

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained with random and Latin hypercube sampling are compared. The comparison uses results from a model for two-phase fluid flow obtained with three independent random samples of size 100 each and three independent Latin hypercube samples (LHSs) of size 100 each. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results with the two sampling procedures are simil...

traditional survey methods may cause refusals to respond or untruthful replies when encounter the sensitive questions. the randomized response technique (rrt) is designed to decrease social desirability bias and obtain reliable estimates. this study aimed to apply these new methods on the sensitive questions survey.simmons model was applied in the survey of issues relevant to commercial sex amo...

A procedure denoted as Line Sampling (LS) has been developed for estimating the reliability of static and dynamical systems. The efficiency and accuracy of the method is shown by application to the subset of the entire spectrum of the posed benchmark problems [12], i.e. in particular linear systems with random properties. The notion of design point excitation for nonlinear system is discussed a...