The study uses the RM3, the regional climate model at the Center for Climate Systems Research of Columbia University and the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies (CCSR/GISS). The paper evaluates 30 48-hour RM3 weather forecasts over West Africa during September 2006 made on a 0.5° grid nested within 1° Global Forecast System (GFS) global forecasts. September 2006 was the Special Observing P...

Recent studies show that multimodel combinations improve hydroclimatic predictions by reducing model uncertainty. Given that climate forecasts are available from multiple climate models, which could be ingested with multiple watershed models, what is the best strategy to reduce the uncertainty in streamflow forecasts? To address this question, we consider three possible strategies: (1) reduce t...

How useful are probabilistic forecasts of the outcomes of particular situations? Potentially, they contain more information than unequivocal forecasts and, as they allow a more realistic representation of the relative likelihood of different outcomes, they might be more accurate and therefore more useful to decision makers. To test this proposition, I first compared a SquaredError Skill Score (...

We investigated the extent to which the human capacity for recognition helps to forecast political elections: We compared naïve recognition-based election forecasts computed from convenience samples of citizens’ recognition of party names to (i) standard polling forecasts computed from representative samples of citizens’ voting intentions, and to (ii) simple—and typically very accurate—wisdom-o...

In important conflicts such as wars and labor–management disputes, people typically rely on experts’ judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices about eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts who used their unaided judgment were little better than those of novices, and neither group’s fore...

It is rather common to have several competing forecasts for the same variable, and many methods have been suggested to pick up the best, on the basis of their past forecasting performance. As an alternative, the forecasts can be combined to obtain a pooled forecast, and several options are available to select what forecasts should be pooled, and how to determine their relative weights. In this ...

Accurate and effective electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in order to make an appropriate risk management in competitive electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide on their bidding strategies, allocate assets and plan facility investments. However, due to its time variant behavior and non-linear and non-stationary nature, electricity...

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecas...

Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecas...

The quality of precipitation forecasts from four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is evaluated over the Ovens catchment in Southeast Australia. Precipitation forecasts are compared with observed precipitation at point and catchment scales and at different temporal resolutions. The four models evaluated are the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) including ACCES...