Extant literature establishes co-movements among commodity (metal and oil) prices; whereas oil price/shocks aggregate, as a lone predictor, has relative predictability for most financial assets. We assess the of Baumeister Hamilton's (2019) decomposed shocks (economic activity shocks, consumption demand inventory supply shocks) conditional volatilities prominently traded precious metals (gold, ...

In a local projections framework, we study the impact of oil price shocks, based on refined approach to disentangle movements, dynamics entire yield curve in nineteen emerging economies with different positions market. Responses term structure factors market shocks are shown differ conditional not only underlying sources that drive price, but also oil-dependence these economies. particular, fin...

 Libya experienced a substantial increase in oil revenue as a result of increased oil prices during the period of the late 1970s and early 1980s, and again after 2000. Recent increases in oil production and the price of oil, and their positive and negative macroeconomic impacts upon key macroeconomic variables, are of considerable contemporary importance to an oil dependent economy such as that...

This paper investigates the uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market fundamental shocks, namely supply, aggregate demand oil-specific shocks. We do so by first proposing a novel uncertainty index that is measured stochastic volatility unpredictable component prices. then employ nonlinear model find all reactions production, real price oil, global economic activity to struc...

Using a set of cointegration and error correction models with Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) or Momentum Threshold Autoregressive (MTAR) asymmetric adjustment, we investigate whether the effects of fiscal policy (i.e. expansionary or contractionary government spending shocks) on interest rates in Japan are asymmetric or not. Forty years of quarterly series on price of oil, Consumer Price Index ...

oil-exporting economies largely dependent on oil revenues and oil income fluctuation are one of the most important factors that influence sectors of the economy specially the stock market. this paper investigate the relationship between oil markets and stock return volatility and transmission in a selection of opec countries, using a multivariate garch models (full-vech) over the period may 201...

Abstract Using oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about persistence oil-price movements, successfully replicates fluctuations in futures since Late 1990s. By embedding this learning mechanism an estimated model, document that increase TFP-driven demand largely accounts for inves...