This paper examines whether recessions and booms are forecastable under the assumption that equity prices, housing prices, import prices, exports, and random shocks are not. Each of the 214 eight-quarter periods within the overall 1954:1–2009:1 period is examined regarding predictions of output growth and in ation. The results for low output growth vary by recession— there is no common pattern....

We study a multi-period, multi-item dynamic pricing problem faced by a retailer. The objective is to maximize the total profit by choosing optimal prices while satisfying several important practical business rules. The strength of our work lies in a graphical model reformulation we introduce, which can be used to solve the problem, while providing access to a whole range of ideas from combinato...

How do trade liberalizations a¤ect relative factor prices and to what extent do they cause factors to reallocate across sectors? We …rst present a general accounting framework that nests a wide range of models that have been used to study the link between globalization and factor prices and from which we obtain two su¢ cient statistics that determine factor prices. Under some restrictions, chan...

Abstract Mathematical programming is used to examine the economic potential of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in U.S. agriculture and forestry. Mitigation practices are entered into a spatially differentiated sector model and are jointly assessed with conventional agricultural production. Competition among practices is examined under a wide range of hypothetical carbon prices. Simulation ...

To date, operational airborne gravity results have been obtained using either a damped two-axes stable platform gravimeter systems such as the LaCoste and Romberg (LCR) S-model marine gravimeter or a strapdown inertial navigation system (INS), showing comparable accuracies. In June of 1998 three flight tests were undertaken which tested a LCR gravimeter and a strapdown INS gravity system side-b...

Although beef demand improved modestly in 1999, 20 years of declining demand has plagued the beef industry. Inflation-adjusted retail beef prices were collapsing at the same time per capita consumption was declining. The result, beef demand declined precipitously from 1980 through the late 1990s. For example, Purcell’s beef demand index indicates 1998 Choice retail beef prices were 50 percent l...

Is the cross-sectional distribution of house prices close to a (log)normal distribution, as is often assumed in empirical studies on house price indexes? How does the distribution evolve over time? To address these questions, we investigate the cross-sectional distribution of house prices in the Greater Tokyo Area. We find that house prices (Pi) are distributed with much fatter tails than a log...