or insolvent. Such crises have recurred throughout the history of capitalism. A collapse in investor confidence, usually after a period of market euphoria, marks such crises—examples include the Dutch tulip mania crisis of 1637–38, the Indian cotton futures market crash of 1866, and the Great Depression of 1929. When foreign lenders are involved, cross-border payments problems arise as well. Th...

During the Asian crisis, intermediate exchange rate regimes vanished. It has been argued that those regimes were no longer useful and only the extremes remained valid. The paper analyses three foreign exchange regimes: Argentina (pegged), Chile (band) and Mexico (float). The Argentinean currency board delivered low financial volatility while it was credible, but even then it displayed high real...

One of the main sources currency crisis experienced by Indonesia is use paper money that not backed gold. The data analysis technique used in this research descriptive qualitative analysis, which a method describing description/conclusion dinar and dirham currencies as solution to global economic crisis. results on Dinar are impact using legal tenders world economy. because fiat will cause inst...

This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjustedmarket capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by...

In 1998-2002, Argentina experienced what the government described as a “great depression.” Using the “Great Depressions” methodology developed by Cole and Ohanian (1999) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002), we find that the primary determinants of both the boom in Argentina in the 1990s and the subsequent depression were changes in productivity, rather than changes in factor inputs. The timing of eve...

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed. Two of the models fail to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not re...

This paper is the first to apply a nested logit model to measure the probabilities of speculative attacks and the probabilities of successful defenses by the central banks. This model allows us to predict not only the probability of speculative attacks but also the probability of successful defenses given attacks. Also, it provides a framework to analyze the degree to which different factors af...