representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Clouds are a concept for uncertainty mediating between the concept of a fuzzy set and that of a probability distribution. A cloud is to a random variable more or less what an interval is to a number. We discuss the basic theoretical and numerical properties of clouds, and relate them to histograms, cumulative distribution functions, and likelihood ratios. We show how to compute nonlinear transf...

We briefly describe the medical expert system Cadiag-2, developed to support the differential diagnostic process in internal medicine. We propose a propositional logic called fuzzy probability logic as a possible formalization of Cadiag-2 and indicate the way of transferring Cadiag-2's methodology into this framework.

In many applications, the use of Bayesian probability theory is problematical. Information needed to feasibility calculate is unavailable. There are different method-ologies for dealing with this problem, e.g., maximal entropy and Dempster-Shafer Theory. If one can make independence assumptions, many of the problems disappear, and in fact, this is often the method of choice even when it is obvi...

Analogical Reasoning (AR) is a method of processing information that compares the similarities between new and past understood concepts, then using these similarities to gain understanding of the new concept. In this work we develop two mathematical models for the description of the process of AR: A stochastic model by introducing a finite ergodic Markov chain on the steps of the AR process and...