according to endogenous tariff hypothesis, tariff is endogenously determined by the set of political economy factors. using the co- integrated var approach and in the framework of the hypothesis, the present study examined the determinants of tariff protection in iran over the period 1971-2010. based on the results, though no evidence has been obtained about the impact of unemployment and impor...

We study theoretically and empirically how optimal unemployment insurance (UI) benefits vary over the business cycle. Theoretically, we characterize how the moral hazard cost and the consumption smoothing benefit of UI vary over the business cycle in a standard job search model. This analysis motivates our empirical strategy which tests whether the effect of UI on unemployment durations and the...

Abstract—The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which acco...

Charles Bean has written an informative discussion of unemployment that brings to a larger audience some parts of his comprehensive discussion of European unemployment (Bean, 1994). His current paper also discusses the role that policy might take to reduce unemployment. I will put policy issues aside initially to concentrate on the causes of unemployment. I begin by stating and commenting on fo...

Extended Abstract. In recent years, needs for small area estimations have been greatly increased for large surveys particularly household surveys in Sta­ tistical Centre of Iran (SCI), because of the costs and respondent burden. The lack of suitable auxiliary variables between two decennial housing and popula­ tion census is a challenge for SCI in using these methods. In general, the...

This study has two goals. The first is to use Markov Switching models to identify and analyze the cycles in the unemployment rate and four different types of property-related criminal activities in the US. The second is to apply the nonparametric concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006) to determine the correlation between the cycles of unemployment rate and property crimes. Findings show ...

Abstract—The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which acco...

Efficiency wages theories argue that the threat of firing, coupled with a high unemployment rate, is a mechanism that discourages employee shirking in asymmetric information contexts. Our empirical analysis aims to test the role of unemployment as a worker discipline device, considering the different degree of job security offered by the Italian Employment Protection Legislation to workers empl...