OBJECTIVE To determine the age related incidence of advanced chronic renal failure in two areas of England. DESIGN Prospective study of patients newly identified as having advanced chronic renal failure within a two year period; subsequent monitoring of patients' clinical course for a further 26 months. SETTING Devon and Blackburn. SUBJECTS Those patients in a population of 708,997 who de...

In the modern medical era it has been known as well that physical activity and exercise are important factors to prevent from different chronic diseases. Scientifically, there are numerous evidence based studies about protective role of exercise against chronic diseases such as cardio- respiratory diseases, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia etc, which have been completely explained. Historically, an...

We introduce a new methodological approach for studying the effect of biased polls on election outcomes and apply it to set experiments with 375 participants. Voters may observe learn about bias by playing multiple voting rounds. While in control conditions, are unbiased, treatment participants view only poll results where particular candidate’s vote share is largest. This candidate consistentl...

The Democratic presidential support among voters was overstated in 88% of national polls 2016 and 93% 2020. "shy voter" phenomenon from British electoral politics one explanation offered the elections. Although a similar pattern occurred 2020 election polls, evidence does not misrepresentation voting intent by Trump supporters as explanation. However, an alternative hypothesis self-selection bi...

I revisit the 2017 French Presidential election which opposed the far right National Front candidate Marine Le Pen against the center candidate Emmanuel Macron. While voting intentions for Le Pen stuck below 50% and polls kept predicting her failure, I warned on the emergence of a novel phenomenon I defined as unavowed abstention, which could suddenly reverse the ranking at Le Pen benefit on th...

Prediction polling is an increasingly popular form of crowdsourcing in which multiple participants estimate the probability or magnitude of some future event. These estimates are then aggregated into a single forecast. Historically, randomness in scientific estimation has been generally assumed to arise from unmeasured factors which are viewed as measurement noise. However, when combining subje...

Only in recent years has the “likely voter” technology been extended to polls well in advance of an election. In the case of the 2000 U.S. presidential election, CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking polls indicated considerable fluctuations in likely voter preferences, greater than among the larger pool of registered voters surveyed. This article explores how Gallup’s likely voter model exaggerates th...

Zheng Xie, Guannan Liu and Junjie Wu ? 1. School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China 2. Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data and Brain Computing, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make in...