Abstract This paper considers a supply chain with the first order autoregressive and the first order moving average (ARMA (1,1)) demand. The lead time demand is estimated using the minimum mean-square error (MMSE) forecasting technique. The expression of the bullwhip effect for a two stage supply chain consisting of one supplier and one retailer is derived, and the existence condition of the bu...

This paper introduces the confidence interval estimate for measuring the bullwhip effect, which has been observed across most industries. Calculating a confidence interval usually needs the assumption about the underlying distribution. Bootstrapping is a non-parametric, but computer intensive, estimation method. In this paper, a simulation study on the behavior of the 95% bootstrap confidence i...

In this paper, a two-product and two-echelon supply chain is considered in order to quantify the bullwhip effect. Demands of the products are correlated and are represented by a first order vector autoregressive model. Retailer uses “order up to” ordering policy for replenishment of stocks and utilizes exponential smoothing forecast method to predict demand in lead-time period. According to the...

The paper proposes both statistical and simulation-based analysis and evaluation of the bullwhip effect in supply chains. The demand distortion, called the bullwhip effect, is considered as an important characteristic of supply chain operation stability. A mathematical justification of the stochastic demand as a cause of the bullwhip effect is discussed. Results of simulation studies to analyse...

Coordination is very important in supply chain management and it is one of the main factors in supply chain profitability. Bullwhip effect is one of the basic obstacles to achieve coordination in supply chains and reduction of this phenomenon has an important role in supply chain harmony. The other side, costs of supply chain can be mitigated and customer service level can be increased by reduc...

The bullwhip effect in nowadays Supply Chains has become a major source of problems and has attracted supply chain scientists attentions. This paper explores the concept of bullwhip effect in supply chains throughout a completely new approach. Assuming all demands are fuzzy in supply chain, fuzzy If-Then rules are used to show the bullwhip effect. Application of fuzzy logic is due to the fuzzy ...

The bullwhip effect problem is one of the most important issues in supply chain management. Limited information sharing increases the difficulty of reducing the bullwhip effect and leads to inefficient supply chain management. The purpose of this paper is to explore new ways to reduce the bullwhip effect in supply chain systems that face uncertainties with respect to information sharing. We fir...

The bullwhip effect is a well-known phenomenon of demand information distortion in supply chains. To measure the bullwhip effect in a supply chain, researchers often resort to material flow data, i.e., shipments and sales data, as proxies for order and demand information. In this paper, we study the accuracy of such an approximated bullwhip measure and provide remedies for correcting the estima...

This paper develops a mathematical model using differential equations and considers a bullwhip effect in a supply chain network with multiple retailers and distributors. To ensure the stability of the entire system and reduce the bullwhip effect, a robust control method and an inventory replenishment policy are proposed. This shows that the choice of the output matrix may reduce the bullwhip ef...

One of the main supply chain deficiencies is the bullwhip effect: demand fluctuations increase as one moves up the supply chain from retailer to manufacturer. The Beer Distribution Game is widely known for illustrating these supply chain dynamics in class. In this paper we present a spreadsheet application, exploring the two key causes of the bullwhip effect: demand forecasting and the type of ...