We demonstrate here several previously unrecognized or insufficiently appreciated properties of the Lee-Carter mortality forecasting approach, a method used widely in both the academic literature and practical applications. We show that this model is a special case of a considerably simpler, and less often biased, random walk with drift model, and prove that the age profile forecast from both a...

accurate forecasting of streamflows has been one of the most important issues as it plays a key role in allotment of water resources. river flow simulations to determine the future river flows are important and practical. given the importance of flow in the coming years, in this research three stations: haji qooshan, ghare shoor and tamar in gorganrood cachment were simulated in 2002-2011. to s...

The Lee-Carter model and its extensions are the most popular methods in field of forecasting mortality rate. But, spite introducing several different rate so far, there is no general method applicable to all situations. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) a relatively new, powerful non parametric time series analysis that capability has been proven various sciences. In this paper, we investigate f...

since the pioneering work of zadeh, fuzzy set theory has been applied to amyriad of areas. song and chissom introduced the concept of fuzzy time series andapplied some methods to the enrolments of the university of alabama. thereafter weapply fuzzy techniques for system identification and apply statistical techniques tomodelling system. an automatic methodology framework that combines fuzzytech...

In this paper, we propose a new residual analysis method using Fourier series transform into fuzzy time series model for improving the forecasting performance. This hybrid model takes advantage of the high predictable power of fuzzy time series model and Fourier series transform to fit the estimated residuals into frequency spectra, select the low-frequency terms, filter out high-frequency term...

The treatment of chronic hypertrophic emphysema by pneumoperitoneum has received much favourable comment in recent medical literature. In several reports on small series of cases it is claimed that this manceuvre will increase vital capacity (Brackenridge and Jones, 1953; Furman and Callaway, 1950; Gaensler and Carter, 1950; Zak and Southwell, 1953),maximum breathing capacity (Gaensler and Cart...

  In recent years, various time series models have been proposed for financial markets forecasting. In each case, the accuracy of time series forecasting models are fundamental to make decision and hence the research for improving the effectiveness of forecasting models have been curried on. Many researchers have compared different time series models together in order to determine more efficien...

one of the water resources modeling requirements is sufficient knowledge of long-term series of meteorological and hydrological parameters. in this study the nearest neighbor resampling method presented by lall and sharma was developed. in the developed model, the knn regression was used for time series forecasting instead of local polynomial used in the developed algorithm by prairie. in this ...