Although gold is no longer a central cornerstone of the international monetary and financial system, it still attracts considerable attention from researchers and investors. Nowadays, many investors manage their risk with valuable assets such as gold. This paper examines the dynamic relationships between gold and stock markets in the Tehran Stock Exchange. We have applied the Markov switching m...

this paper, i have focused on the tax side of the fiscal policy to  investigate the past and future behavior of fiscal sustainability in iran. to do so, i have employed two different forward-looking and backward-looking approaches. first, the backward-looking approach is the fiscal policy rule proposed by daving & leeper (2011). precisely, this rule determines that whether the fiscal policy is ...

Though Hamilton's (1989) Markov switching model has been widely estimated in various contexts, formal testing for Markov switching is not straightforward. Univariate tests in the classical framework by Hansen (1992) and Garcia (1998) do not reject the linear model for GDP. We present Bayesian tests for Markov switching in both univariate and multivariate settings based on sensitivity of the pos...

This paper empirically compares the Markov-switching and stochastic volatility diffusion models of the short rate. The evidence supports the Markov-switching diffusion model. Estimates of the elasticity of volatility parameter for single regime models unanimously indicate an explosive volatility process, while the Markov-switching models estimates are reasonable. We find that either Markov-swit...

according to the importance of careful review of crude oil market fluctuations on the iranian economy, in this paper a multivariate model of markov switching vector error correction model (have been used). variables such as real gross domestic product in industrial sector, real effective exchange rate, real governmental expenditure, real import, inflation rate and real crude oil price is used t...