The basic idea behind such information markets is that the pricing scheme of the market encourages the participants to buy or sell shares in accordance to their private information. Consider, for example, the security that pays $1 if the winner of the 2008 US presidential elections is democrat. An agent who privately believes with probability p that US will have a democrat president in 2008, wi...

OBJECTIVE To determine the age related incidence of advanced chronic renal failure in two areas of England. DESIGN Prospective study of patients newly identified as having advanced chronic renal failure within a two year period; subsequent monitoring of patients' clinical course for a further 26 months. SETTING Devon and Blackburn. SUBJECTS Those patients in a population of 708,997 who de...

In the modern medical era it has been known as well that physical activity and exercise are important factors to prevent from different chronic diseases. Scientifically, there are numerous evidence based studies about protective role of exercise against chronic diseases such as cardio- respiratory diseases, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia etc, which have been completely explained. Historically, an...

To what extend can one use Twitter in opinion polls for political elections? Merely counting Twitter messages mentioning political party names is no guarantee for obtaining good election predictions. By improving the quality of the document collection and by performing sentiment analysis, predictions based on entity counts in tweets can be considerably improved, and become nearly as good as tra...

From IPSM’s data in 1988, Forsythe and his colleagues proved that even though there were substantial judgment bias, Iowa Political Stock Market worked quite well in the sense that its estimation of presidential candidates’ popular vote share surprisingly close, much better than the forecasts of opinion-polls. They explained that the judgment bias only referred to average traders, but market pri...