The stock market is forward looking; economic indicators and important future events are factored into stock prices. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis†, markets operate efficiently and stock prices instantly and stock prices instantly reflect all information available. However, inefficiencies in the stock market exist due to the behaviors and expectations of investors. Stock prices m...

Focuses on several key industries like Textile, Plastics, and Electronics, this study applies the Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) Model on the industrial sales index and industrial stock prices index to observe the dynamic relationship between sales and stock prices. Our empirical result has shown a consistent pattern of relationship between sales and stock prices among all industr...

The paper presents a bivariate SVAR model including growth rates of industrial production and of stock prices. Imposing a long-run restriction à la Blanchard and Quah (1989) that excludes long-run influences of the stock market on real activity allows to decompose stock prices in a fundamental and a nonfundamental component. The results of the forecast error variance decompositions as well as o...

this paper empirically investigates the exchange rate effects of iranian rial against dollar (rial vs.us) on stock prices in iran. the sample period for the study has been taken from march 20, 2004 to march 20, 2010 using daily nominal exchange rate of rial /us and daily closing values of tehran stock exchange. generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (garch) model has been use...

MOST PEOPLE AGREE that stock prices sometimes behave in strange ways. Going beyond this simple observation typically proves more difficult. For at least the past quarter century, economists have been well aware that the variation of stock prices does not nicely match the familiar bell-shaped normal distribution.1 The problem is too many extreme movements. Very large increases or decreases would...

The long-run risks model of asset prices explains stock price variation as a response to persistent ‡uctuations in the mean and volatility of consumption growth, by a representative agent with a high elasticity of intertemporal substitution. This paper documents that the model fails to …t aggregate asset prices in several important ways. The model implies that long-run consumption growth should...

The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the Error Correction Model (ECM), and the Kalman Filter Model (KFM) are used to forecast UK stock prices. The forecasting performance of the three models is compared using out of sample forecasting. The results show that the forecasting performance of the ECM is better than that of the VAR and the KFM, and that the VAR performs a forecasting better than th...

We present a behavioral stock market model in which traders are driven by greed and fear. In general, the agents optimistically believe in rising markets and thus buy stocks. But if stock prices change too abruptly, they panic and sell stocks. Our model mimics some stylized facts of stock market dynamics: (1) stock prices increase over time, (2) stock markets sometimes crash, (3) stock prices s...