Debt and currency crises are closely interlinked through the government’s intertemporal budget constraint. The default tax and the inflation/devaluation tax can be considered as alternative means of financing. Our empirical analysis finds that high-debt countries choose default rather than inflation/devaluation for financing, while a high money stock reduces the probability of debt crises. Furt...

We quantify the effects of lending and balance sheet channels on corporate investment during large crises in emerging markets. The depreciated currency creates investment opportunities in the tradable sector but firms might be financially constrained due to: 1) a deterioration of their balance sheet via un-hedged foreign currency debt (balance sheet channel) and 2) a decline in the supply of cr...

We analyze the effect of risk aversion, wealth and portfolios on the behavior of investors in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices. The model generates a rich set of striking theoretical predictions. For example, risk aversion makes currency crises significantly less likely; increased wealth makes crises more likely; and foreign direct investment (illiquid inves...

Currency crises tend to affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that regional patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994, and 1997) we show that currency crises affect countries tied together by international trade...

Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. We provide empirical support for this hypothesis. Using data for five different currency crises (in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994, and 1997) we show that currency c...

The economic literature emphasised the role of strategic complementarities in generating banking crises and currency crises. Motivated by evidence from recent financial crises, we study a model, where strategic complementarities exist, not only within a group of creditors or within a group of currency speculators, but also between the two groups. The additional type of complementarities generat...

Recent studies have conjectured that there may be a link between financial liberalization and financial instability in emerging economies. Most of these studies, however, do not investigate whether emerging economies are becoming structurally more vulnerable to currency and banking crises. In this paper, we argue that emerging economies are systematically becoming more susceptible to both curre...

Financial crises are linked to large output declines, but the potential links between different types of crises remains unclear. To enhance understanding we study the interdependencies between domestic banking crises, on one hand, and external financial crises, including currency and sudden stop crises, on the other in a quarterly global panel. We further ask how the different crises relate to ...