Water quality Risk Analysis Tool (WaterRAT) is recently developed software for supporting surface water quality management. The software contains a library of river and lake quality models, aiming to give flexibility over specification of model scope, complexity and scale. Various sources of uncertainty can be included in the analysis, including uncertainty in boundary conditions, initial condi...

This paper applies the theory of real options to analyze how the value of information-based flexibility should affect the decision to centralize or decentralize data management under low and high uncertainty. This study makes two main contributions. First, we show that in the presence of low uncertainty, centralization of data-management decisions creates more total surplus for the firm as the ...

The issue of whether models developed for current conditions can yield correct predictions when used under changed control, as is often the case in environmental management, is discussed. Two models of different complexity are compared on the basis of performance criteria, but it appears that good performance at the calibration stage does not guarantee correctly predicted behavior. A requiremen...

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVES To determine whether breast cancer survivors (BCSs) who received an uncertainty management intervention, compared to an attention control condition, would have less uncertainty, better uncertainty management, fewer breast cancer-specific concerns, and more positive psychological outcomes. DESIGN A 2 × 2 randomized block, repeated-measures design, with data collected at base...

Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the com...

The conservation of biodiversity poses an exceptionally difficult problem in that it needs to be effective in a context of double uncertainty: scientific (i.e., how to conserve biodiversity) and normative (i.e., which biodiversity to conserve and why). Although adaptive management offers a promising approach to overcome scientific uncertainty, normative uncertainty is seldom tackled by conserva...

Uncertainty enters the dynamic tradeoffs of environmental and natural resource management in a variety of ways and forms. In this chapter we review the various sources of uncertainty, the methodologies developed to account for them and implications regarding management of environmental and natural resources.