Abstract This paper revisits real-time forecasting of U.S. inflation based on Phillips curve-inspired linear regression models. Our innovation is to allow for both structural breaks in the regression parameters and the variance as well as uncertainty regarding which set of predictor variables one can include in these regressions (‘model uncertainty’). Structural breaks are described by occasion...

Considering market-based inflation expectations, we show that investors’ forecasts are non-linear. We capture this non-linear behavior with a Markov-switching model allows us to identify regime of high uncertainty, and low uncertainty concern about inflation. Using complete cross-asset panel equity sectors, bonds, commodities, perform regressions in both regimes including several control variab...

In contrast to conventional conditional mean approaches, this study uses quantile regression techniques to present some new statistical evidence on the link between inflation uncertainty and the level of inflation with cross sectional data in 161 countries for period from 1961-2002. We find new evidence that suggests positive inflation shocks have stronger impacts on inflation uncertainty acros...

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and growth uncertainty in Iran for the period of 1988-2008 by using quarterly data. We employ Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate time-varying conditional residual variance of growth, as a standard measures of growth uncertainty. The empirical evidence shows that growth uncertain...

the purpose of present paper was to examine the relationship between central bank independence and inflation rate in iran over 1960-2008. first, central bank independence has been accomplished through three indices including legal and real cbi indices and turnover rate of central bank governor index. then, augmented dickey-fuller test for model stationary of variables has been done by applying ...

T he world economy has experienced a bulk of positive and negative shocks in crude oil prices and exchange rates over the years, and that global inflation has undergone some changes. Such shocks have affected the macroeconomic variables in the countries of the world and have challenged the economies of these countries, and have led them to take different measures to protect themselves agai...