Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies state-dependent effects of monetary policy on crisis risk. Based near-universe advanced economy cycles since nineteenth century, we show that discretionary policies during credit and asset price are more likely to trigger crises than prevent them. (JEL E4...

This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. We show that Ricardian Equivalence continues to hold provided suitable additional conditions on learning dynamics are satisfied. However, new cases of failure can also emerge under learning. In particular, for Ricardian Equivalence to obtain, agents...

Our proposed local vector autoregressive (LVAR) model has timevarying parameters that allow it to be safely used in both stationary and non-stationary situations. The estimation is conducted over an interval of local homogeneity where the parameters are approximately constant. The local interval is identified in a sequential testing procedure. Numerical analysis and real data application are co...

This paper investigates the e¤ects of replacing the consumer price index (CPI) with the wholesale price index (WPI) in the cointegrating international parity relationships found by Juselius and MacDonald (2000). Our empirical analysis outstandingly produced results similar to the ones obtained by Juselius and MacDonald, suggesting that the cointegration relationships in the international parity...

Linearity-generating” processes offer a tractable procedure to model cash-flows and pricing kernels in a way that yields exact closed form expressions for bond and stock prices. Prices are simply affine (not exponential-affine) in the factors. The linearity-generating class operates in discrete and continuous time with an arbitrary number of factors. This paper presents novel and general regula...

We extend the vector autoregression (VAR) based expectations hypothesis test of term structure, considered in Bekaert & Hodrick (2001) using recent developments in bootstrap literature. Modifications include the use of wild bootstrap to allow for conditional heteroskedasticity in the VAR residuals without imposing strict parameterization, endogeneous model selection procedure in the bootstrap r...

This paper analyzes the effects of lower bound for interest rates on distributions inflation and rates. In a New Keynesian model with bound, two equilibria emerge: policy is mostly unconstrained in “target equilibrium,” whereas constrained “liquidity trap equilibrium.” Using options data inflation, we find forecast densities consistent target equilibrium no evidence favor liquidity equilibrium....

After the Great Recession several central banks started setting negative nominal interest rates in an expansionary attempt, but effectiveness of this measure remains unclear. Negative can stimulate economy by lowering that commercial charge on loans, they also erode bank profitability squeezing deposit spreads. This paper studies effects a new DSGE model where intermediate transmission monetary...

We propose a model of banks’ exposure to movements in interest rates and their role the transmission monetary shocks. Since bank deposits provide liquidity, higher allow banks earn larger spreads on deposits. Therefore, if risk aversion is than one, optimal dynamic hedging strategy take losses when rise. This can be achieved by traditional maturity-mismatched balance sheet amplifies effects sho...

This paper assesses the presence and importance of neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates estimates an empirical a New Keynesian model driven by stationary nonstationary monetary real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases inflation output. The main finding is that permanent shocks increase long run ra...