A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial variability modelling this raises several methodological and practical issues, which suggests an alternati...

This paper intends to harmonize two different approaches to the analysis of the business cycle and in doing so it retrieves the stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. We start with the ‘classical’ approach proposed in Burns and Mitchell (1946) of dating and analyzing the business cycle; we then adopt the ‘modern’ alternative: the Markov-switching time series model proposed in Hamilton ...

Our results complement the recent ̄ndings of real exchange rates as stationary processes. The standard procedure of applying a battery of unit root tests can be problematic since the tests are sensitive to the speci ̄cs of the time series process. The novelty of the approach we apply is in emphasizing the information content of the data in distinguishing between the competing processes. Stationa...

This paper contributes to the existing literature on dating currency crisis in three ways. First, we combine the Monte Carlo simulation with a modified Hill’s estimator method to obtain more robust results and efficiently deal with bias variance tradeoff in identifying extreme values. Second, we propose a systematic way to choose the reference country in building the Exchange Market Pressure in...

During a survey of black yeasts of marine origin, some isolates of Hortaea werneckii were recovered from scuba diving equipment, such as silicone masks and snorkel mouthpieces, which had been kept under poor storage conditions. These yeasts were unambiguously identified by phenotypic and genotypic methods. Phylogenetic analysis of both the D1/D2 regions of 26S rRNA gene and ITS-5.8S rRNA gene s...

A large economic literature discusses the implications of export sanctions for a variety of states around the world. This paper investigates the macro-level consequences of imposing oil export barriers on an oil exporting country. We employ a large real financial computable general equilibrium for Iran. The model is calibrated based on 1999 Social Accounting Matrix for the economy of Iran inc...

In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in currency :union:s internationally. The formation of currency :union: in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has drawn much attention of Islamic countries. This paper aims to investigate the effect of currency :union: formation for trade among 49 Islamic countries over the period 1990-2012 by OCA and Augmented Gravity Model (AGM). T...